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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Chicago Bears · QB

Caleb Williams

Valued at 3.4 points a game over Case Keenum (current-form EPA vs backup). Played 0 of 3 games he was listed for.

The File

NewsGameChangeWorthLine then → close/nowPriced in?PlayedSource
Tue Sep 29, 1:06 PM W4 vs NYJ Out → Doubtful−0.1 −3 → −3.5 — — ESPN
Sat Sep 26, 3:19 PM W3 vs PHI Doubtful → Out+0.2 +3.5 → +3.5 — No ESPN
Mon Sep 21, 1:01 PM W3 vs PHI Questionable → Doubtful+4.2 +3.5 → +3.5 Never priced in No ESPN
Sun Sep 20, 3:48 PM W3 vs PHI Active → Questionable+2.6 −1.5 → +3.5 Moved past our number No ESPN

Statuses as reported by the team and ESPN. Lines are the team's consensus spread before the news and at kickoff (or now, for games not yet played).