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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Monday, October 5, 2026 Week 5 · Early Edition

Week 5 · Sunday, October 11, 4:25 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks −3.5 at our first look, −3 now. 2 injury reports on file.

Conditions · Lumen Field: Forecast 61°F, wind 7 mph, 3% chance of rain.

The read so far

News: 49ers −0.0 · Seahawks −0.4 → favors the 49ers by 0.4. Market: moved 0.5 toward the 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers −0.0

Seattle Seahawks −0.4

EDGE Leonard Williams
Active → Questionable		 Questionable−0.4

Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.

Line Movement

What moved the Seahawks lineSeattle Seahawks spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against Seattle.
−4−3Opening line−3.5SEA EDGE Williams questionableSun 7:38 PM+0.5Line now−3
−4−3Opening line−3.5SEA EDGE Williams questionableSun 7:38 PM+0.5Line now−3
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3.5
SEA EDGE Williams questionableSun Oct 4, 7:38 PM ET+0.5
Line now−3
What moved the Seahawks moneylineSeattle Seahawks moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = toward Seattle.
−138−150−163−178Opening line−174SEA EDGE Williams questionableSun 7:38 PM−141Line now−140
−138−150−163−178Opening line−174SEA EDGE Williams questionableSun 7:38 PM−141Line now−140
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line63.5% (−174)
SEA EDGE Williams questionableSun Oct 4, 7:38 PM ET58.5% (−141)
Line now58.4% (−140)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Injuries on either side of the ball and weather move this line.
464748Opening line47.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:48 PM−0.8SEA EDGE Williams questionableMon 1:22 AM+0.8Line now47.5
464748Opening line47.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 7:48 PM−0.8SEA EDGE Williams questionableMon 1:22 AM+0.8Line now47.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line47.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Oct 4, 7:48 PM ET-0.8
SEA EDGE Williams questionableMon Oct 5, 1:22 AM ET+0.8
Line now47.5

Injury Report

San Francisco 49ers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
S Marques Sigle
Sun 8:15 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.0 —

Seattle Seahawks

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
EDGE Leonard Williams
Sun 7:39 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.4 —

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Seahawks side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 −104−1541.65 58.4%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
Kalshi−3 —−1471.68 59.5%47Mon 1:22 AM
DraftKings−2.5 −120−1481.68 57.2%46.5Mon 1:22 AM
FanDuel−3 −110−1641.61 59.7%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
BetMGM−3 −102−1551.65 58.3%47Mon 1:22 AM
Caesars−3 −105−1541.65 58.4%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
BetRivers−3 −115−1621.62 59.0%47Mon 1:22 AM
BetOnline−3 +100−1501.67 58.0%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
LowVig−3 +105−1501.67 58.0%47.5Mon 1:22 AM
MyBookie−3.5 −110—— —47.5Sun 12:54 PM
BetUS−3 +100—— —47.5Mon 1:22 AM

Best for SF: BetRivers +3 (−106)Best for SEA: DraftKings −2.5 (−120)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The 49ers side is the mirror image.