Week 8 · Sunday, November 1, 4:25 PM ET
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Dolphins +7.5 at our first look, +7.5 now. 0 injury reports on file. Team pages: Patriots · Dolphins
Conditions · Hard Rock Stadium: Forecast 88°F, wind 12 mph, 28% chance of rain.
The read so far
News: Patriots 0.0 · Dolphins 0.0. Market: line unchanged.
New England Patriots 0.0
No news that moves the number.
Miami Dolphins 0.0
No news that moves the number.
Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. A questionable starter counts at his chance of sitting (shown beside him with his full value if he's ruled out). After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.
Line Movement
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | +7.5 | |
| Market move, no reported news | Fri Oct 23, 12:22 AM ET | +1 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 25, 5:20 PM ET | -1 |
| Line now | +7.5 |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 22.1% (+352) | |
| Market move, no reported news | Fri Oct 23, 12:22 AM ET | 19.2% (+421) |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 25, 5:20 PM ET | 22.1% (+352) |
| Price-only move | 24.1% (+315) | |
| Line now | 24.1% (+315) |
44.5 no movement since tracking began Tue 4:16 PM ET.
Notes
Line moves 1 toward the Dolphins after last week's results
The consensus spread on Patriots at Dolphins has moved from +8.5 to +7.5 (home side). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
MIA since this note: +7.5 → +7.5 (no move)
Injury Report
New England Patriots
Nothing on the report.
Out long-term, already in the line: Romeo Doubs (WR · IR · since Week 7), Mike Onwenu (OL · IR · since Week 3), Greg Van Roten (OL · IR · since Week 4), Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL · Reserve list · since Week 7), Mack Hollins (WR · IR · since Week 5).
Miami Dolphins
Nothing on the report.
Out long-term, already in the line: De'Von Achane (RB · IR · since Week 4).
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Dolphins side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | +7.5 | −111 | +295 | 3.95 | 24.1% | 44.5 | Mon 2:29 AM |
| Kalshi | +7 | — | +326 | 4.26 | 23.5% | 45 | Mon 2:29 AM |
| DraftKings | +7.5 | −115 | +310 | 4.10 | 23.4% | 44.5 | Mon 2:29 AM |
| FanDuel | +7.5 | −110 | +330 | 4.30 | 22.4% | 44.5 | Mon 2:29 AM |
| BetMGM | +7.5 | −115 | +300 | 4.00 | 24.1% | 44.5 | Mon 2:29 AM |
| Caesars | +7.5 | −113 | +300 | 4.00 | 23.9% | 44.5 | Mon 2:29 AM |
| BetRivers | +7.5 | −108 | +320 | 4.20 | 22.8% | 44.5 | Mon 2:29 AM |
| BetOnline | +7.5 | −116 | +285 | 3.85 | 25.0% | 44.5 | Mon 2:29 AM |
| Bovada | +7 | −105 | +280 | 3.80 | 25.2% | 44.5 | Mon 2:29 AM |
| LowVig | +7.5 | −112 | +285 | 3.85 | 25.0% | 44.5 | Mon 2:29 AM |
| MyBookie | +7.5 | −110 | +290 | 3.90 | 24.5% | 44.5 | Mon 2:29 AM |
| BetUS | +7.5 | −110 | +285 | 3.85 | 25.0% | 44.5 | Mon 2:29 AM |
Best for NE: DraftKings −7.5 (−105)Best for MIA: BetRivers +7.5 (−108)
Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Patriots side is the mirror image.