Week 9 · Sunday, November 8, 1:00 PM ET
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Colts +3 at our first look, +5.5 now. 5 injury reports on file. Team pages: Cowboys · Colts
The read so far
News: Cowboys −0.4 · Colts +0.3 → favors the Colts by 0.7. Market: moved 2.5 toward the Cowboys. Not priced in
Dallas Cowboys −0.4
| NB Caleb Downs Active → Questionable · 0.9 if out, sits 36% of the time |
Questionable | −0.3 |
| S P.J. Locke Active → Questionable · 0.2 if out, sits 36% of the time |
Questionable | −0.1 |
Indianapolis Colts +0.3
| NB Justin Walley Out → Questionable · 0.4 if out, sits 36% of the time |
Questionable | +0.3 |
Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. A questionable starter counts at his chance of sitting (shown beside him with his full value if he's ruled out). After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.
Line Movement
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | +3 | |
| Market move, no reported news | Tue Oct 27, 4:55 PM ET | +2 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Nov 1, 6:24 PM ET | +1 |
| DAL NB Downs questionable | Tue Nov 3, 7:58 PM ET | -0.5 |
| Line now | +5.5 |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 38.4% (+160) | |
| Market move, no reported news | Tue Oct 27, 4:55 PM ET | 29.4% (+240) |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Nov 1, 6:24 PM ET | 25.6% (+291) |
| DAL NB Downs questionable | Tue Nov 3, 7:58 PM ET | 27.4% (+265) |
| Less than the spread implies | 30.5% (+228) | |
| Line now | 30.5% (+228) |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 50.5 | |
| Market move, no reported news | Tue Oct 27, 4:55 PM ET | +1 |
| Line now | 51.5 |
Notes
Line moves 1.5 toward the Cowboys after last week's results
The consensus spread on Cowboys at Colts has moved from +4.5 to +6 (home side). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
IND since this note: +6 → +5.5 (−0.5)
Injury Report
Dallas Cowboys
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| S P.J. Locke Mon 6:28 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | — |
| NB Caleb Downs Mon 11:17 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.3 | — |
| LB Dee Winters Tue 8:27 AM |
Out → Questionable | −0.0 | — |
Out long-term, already in the line: Jalen Thompson (DB · IR · since Week 4).
Indianapolis Colts
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| NB Justin Walley Tue 8:27 AM |
Out → Questionable | −0.3 | — |
| LB Bryce Boettcher Tue 8:27 AM |
Out → Questionable | −0.0 | — |
Out long-term, already in the line: Alec Pierce (WR · IR · since Week 3), Arden Key (DL · IR · since Week 5).
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Colts side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | +5.5 | — | +228 | 3.28 | 30.5% | 51.5 | Tue 7:58 PM |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | — | +228 | 3.28 | 30.5% | 51.5 | Tue 7:58 PM |
| DraftKings | +4.5 | −110 | +185 | 2.85 | 33.6% | 51.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| FanDuel | +4.5 | −108 | +198 | 2.98 | 32.2% | 52.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| Caesars | +4.5 | −113 | +191 | 2.91 | 33.0% | 51.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| BetRivers | +4.5 | −112 | +170 | 2.70 | 35.2% | 51.5 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| BetOnline | +4.5 | −110 | — | — | — | 51 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| LowVig | +4.5 | −105 | — | — | — | 51 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| MyBookie | +4.5 | −110 | +171 | 2.71 | 35.1% | 52 | Sun 12:04 AM |
| BetUS | +4.5 | −110 | — | — | — | 52 | Sun 12:04 AM |
Best for DAL: Caesars −4.5 (−107)Best for IND: FanDuel +4.5 (−108)
Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Cowboys side is the mirror image.