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The Sharp Edition
The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 Week 9 · Early Edition

Week 9 · Sunday, November 8, 4:25 PM ET

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Patriots −3 at our first look, −3 now. 6 injury reports on file. Team pages: Packers · Patriots

Conditions · Gillette Stadium: Forecast 50°F, wind 14 mph (gusts 28), 4% chance of rain.

The read so far

News: Packers +0.2 · Patriots +0.1. Market: line unchanged.

Green Bay Packers +0.2

WR Christian Watson
Active → Questionable · 0.8 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.3
LB Zaire Franklin
Out → Questionable · 0.3 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable+0.2
C Sean Rhyan
Out → Questionable · 0.3 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable+0.2
RB Kaleb Johnson
Out → Returning		 Returning+0.1

New England Patriots +0.1

WR A.J. Brown
Out → Questionable · 0.2 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable+0.1
TE Hunter Henry
Active → Questionable · 0.2 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.1

Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. A questionable starter counts at his chance of sitting (shown beside him with his full value if he's ruled out). After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.

Line Movement

What moved the Patriots lineNew England Patriots spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against New England.
−3−2Opening line−3Market move, no reported newsFri 6:04 PM+0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:24 PM−0.5Line now−3
−3−2Opening line−3Market move, no reported newsFri 6:04 PM+0.5Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:24 PM−0.5Line now−3
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line−3
Market move, no reported newsFri Oct 30, 6:04 PM ET+0.5
Reaction to last week's gameSun Nov 1, 11:24 PM ET-0.5
Line now−3
What moved the Patriots moneylineNew England Patriots moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = toward New England.
−138−144−150Opening line−150Market move, no reported newsFri 6:04 PM−141Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:24 PM−150Price-only move−147Line now−147
−138−144−150Opening line−150Market move, no reported newsFri 6:04 PM−141Reaction to last week's gameSun 11:24 PM−150Price-only move−147Line now−147
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line60.0% (−150)
Market move, no reported newsFri Oct 30, 6:04 PM ET58.5% (−141)
Reaction to last week's gameSun Nov 1, 11:24 PM ET60.0% (−150)
Price-only move59.5% (−147)
Line now59.5% (−147)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Injuries on either side of the ball and weather move this line.
464748Opening line46.5Market move, no reported newsFri 6:04 PM+1NE TE Henry questionableMon 5:38 AM−0.5GB WR Watson questionableMon 5:54 PM−0.5Line now46.5
464748Opening line46.5Market move, no reported newsFri 6:04 PM+1NE TE Henry questionableMon 5:38 AM−0.5GB WR Watson questionableMon 5:54 PM−0.5Line now46.5
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line46.5
Market move, no reported newsFri Oct 30, 6:04 PM ET+1
NE TE Henry questionableMon Nov 2, 5:38 AM ET-0.5
GB WR Watson questionableMon Nov 2, 5:54 PM ET-0.5
Line now46.5

Notes

WeatherTue Nov 3, 6:38 PM

Wind in the Forecast for Packers at Patriots

The forecast for kickoff at Gillette Stadium calls for wind 14 mph, gusting 28. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.

Total since this forecast: 46.5 → 46.5 (no move)

InjuryTue Oct 27, 7:47 PM · GB

Parsons could practice again as Packers eye pass-rush boost

Packers coach Matt LaFleur left open the possibility that edge rusher Micah Parsons returns to practice next week following knee surgery. Parsons has not played while recovering, so a practice return would start the clock on his availability for upcoming games. ESPN

GB since this note: +3 → +3 (no move)

Injury Report

Green Bay Packers

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
WR Christian Watson
Mon 3:35 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —
C Sean Rhyan
Tue 8:27 AM		 Out → Questionable−0.2 —
LB Zaire Franklin
Tue 8:27 AM		 Out → Questionable−0.2 —
RB Kaleb Johnson
Tue 8:27 AM		 Out → Returning−0.1 —

Out long-term, already in the line: Zach Bako-Bewele (OL · IR · since Week 4), Javon Hargrave (DL · IR · since Week 6), Edgerrin Cooper (LB · IR · since Week 5), Jonathan Ford (DL · IR · since Week 6), Jacob Monk (OL · IR · since Week 8).

New England Patriots

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
TE Hunter Henry
Sun 5:50 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
WR A.J. Brown
Tue 8:27 AM		 Out → Questionable−0.1 —

Out long-term, already in the line: Romeo Doubs (WR · IR · since Week 7), Mike Onwenu (OL · IR · since Week 3), Greg Van Roten (OL · IR · since Week 4), Alijah Vera-Tucker (OL · IR · since Week 7), Mack Hollins (WR · IR · since Week 5).

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Patriots side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus−3 —−1471.68 59.5%46.5Tue 7:58 PM
Kalshi−3 —−1471.68 59.5%46.5Tue 7:58 PM
DraftKings−3 −102−1551.65 58.3%47.5Sun 12:04 AM
FanDuel−2.5 −114−1521.66 57.9%47.5Sun 12:04 AM
Caesars−2.5 −112−1521.66 58.0%47.5Sun 12:04 AM
BetRivers−2.5 −117−1521.66 57.6%47.5Sun 12:04 AM
BetOnline−2.5 −105—— —47Sun 12:04 AM
LowVig−2.5 +100—— —47Sun 12:04 AM
MyBookie−2.5 −110−1531.65 57.6%47.5Sun 12:04 AM
BetUS−3 +100—— —47Sun 12:04 AM

Best for GB: DraftKings +3 (−118)Best for NE: Caesars −2.5 (−112)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Packers side is the mirror image.