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The Sharp Edition
The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 Week 10

Week 10 · Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Jets +9 at our first look, +8 now. 10 injury reports on file. Team pages: Bills · Jets

Conditions · MetLife Stadium: Forecast 47°F, wind 14 mph, 0% chance of rain.

The read so far

News: Bills −0.6 · Jets −0.2 → favors the Jets by 0.3. Market: moved 1 toward the Jets.

Buffalo Bills −0.6

CB Christian Benford
Active → Questionable · 0.7 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.3
C Connor McGovern
Active → Questionable · 0.5 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.2
RT Spencer Brown
Active → Questionable · 0.4 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.1

New York Jets −0.2

WR Omar Cooper Jr.
Active → Questionable · 0.4 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.1
DT Harrison Phillips
Active → Questionable · 0.3 if out, sits 36% of the time		 Questionable−0.1

Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. A questionable starter counts at his chance of sitting (shown beside him with his full value if he's ruled out). After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.

Line Movement

What moved the Jets lineNew York Jets spread, consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = against New York.
+7+8+9Opening line+9Market move, no reported newsSun 7:45 PM−1.5NYJ WR Wilson ruled outWed 12:30 AMmarket moved 12h before the report+0.5Line now+8
+7+8+9Opening line+9Market move, no reported newsSun 7:45 PM−1.5NYJ WR Wilson ruled outWed 12:30 AM · market moved 12h before the report+0.5Line now+8
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line+9
Market move, no reported newsSun Nov 8, 7:45 PM ET-1.5
NYJ WR Wilson ruled outWed Nov 11, 12:30 AM ET+0.5
Line now+8
What moved the Jets moneylineNew York Jets moneyline, no-vig consensus of U.S. books and Kalshi. Right = toward New York.
+426+400+376+355+335+317Opening line+413Market move, no reported newsSun 7:45 PM+320NYJ WR Wilson ruled outWed 12:30 AMmarket moved 12h before the report+348Less than the spread implies+369Line now+369
+426+400+376+355+335+317Opening line+413Market move, no reported newsSun 7:45 PM+320NYJ WR Wilson ruled outWed 12:30 AM · market moved 12h before the report+348Less than the spread implies+369Line now+369
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line19.5% (+413)
Market move, no reported newsSun Nov 8, 7:45 PM ET23.8% (+320)
NYJ WR Wilson ruled outWed Nov 11, 12:30 AM ET22.3% (+348)
Less than the spread implies21.3% (+369)
Line now21.3% (+369)
What moved the totalConsensus over/under. Injuries on either side of the ball and weather move this line.
3840424446485052Opening line39Market move, no reported newsSun 7:14 PM+12Reaction to last week's gameTue 12:15 AM−0.5NYJ WR Wilson upgradedTue 3:43 PM+0.5Line now51
3840424446485052Opening line39Market move, no reported newsSun 7:14 PM+12Reaction to last week's gameTue 12:15 AM−0.5NYJ WR Wilson upgradedTue 3:43 PM+0.5Line now51
Data
CauseWhenMove
Opening line39
Market move, no reported newsSun Nov 8, 7:14 PM ET+12
Reaction to last week's gameTue Nov 10, 12:15 AM ET-0.5
NYJ WR Wilson upgradedTue Nov 10, 3:43 PM ET+0.5
Line now51

Notes

RosterWed Nov 11, 5:43 PM · BUF

Hooker expects to play for Bills at Jets

Safety Amani Hooker, acquired by Buffalo before the trade deadline, said he expects to be ready for Sunday's game at the Jets. He believes he can learn the defensive scheme in time to contribute. ESPN

BUF since this note: −8 → −8 (no move)

Team SaysWed Nov 11, 3:40 PM · NYJ

Glenn says McDonald will see more snaps for Jets

Jets coach Aaron Glenn said pass rusher Will McDonald IV has earned an expanded role after the two met following McDonald's trade request. A bigger snap share could boost the Jets' pass rush against Buffalo. ESPN

NYJ since this note: +8 → +8 (no move)

MarketMon Nov 9, 2:32 AM · NYJ

Line moves 1 toward the Jets after last week's results

The consensus spread on Bills at Jets has moved from +8.5 to +7.5 (home side). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.

NYJ since this note: +7.5 → +8 (+0.5)

MarketMon Nov 9, 1:51 AM · NYJ

Line moves 1.5 toward the Jets after last week's results

The consensus spread on Bills at Jets has moved from +9 to +7.5 (home side). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.

NYJ since this note: +8.5 → +8 (−0.5)

MarketMon Nov 9, 1:32 AM · NYJ

Line moves 1 toward the Jets after last week's results

The consensus spread on Bills at Jets has moved from +8.5 to +7.5 (home side). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.

NYJ since this note: +9 → +8 (−1.0)

MarketMon Nov 9, 6:13 PM · NYJ

Line moves 1.5 toward the Jets after last week's results

The consensus spread on Bills at Jets has moved from +9 to +7.5 (home side). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.

NYJ since this note: +8 → +8 (no move)

MarketMon Nov 9, 6:13 PM · NYJ

Total rises 12 for Bills at Jets after last week's results

The consensus total on Bills at Jets has moved from 39 to 51. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.

NYJ since this note: +7.5 → +8 (+0.5)

WeatherWed Nov 11, 8:47 PM

Wind in the Forecast for Bills at Jets

The forecast for kickoff at MetLife Stadium calls for wind 14 mph, gusting 19. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.

Injury Report

Buffalo Bills

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
TE Dalton Kincaid
Wed 4:59 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.0 —
CB Christian Benford
Wed 5:20 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.3 —
RT Spencer Brown
Wed 5:20 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
C Connor McGovern
Wed 5:20 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.2 —

New York Jets

PlayerChangeWorthPlayed
LB Trevin Wallace
Tue 11:05 AM		 Out → Questionable−0.1 —
WR Garrett Wilson
Tue 11:05 AM		 Out → Questionable−0.3 —
WR Omar Cooper Jr.
Wed 12:11 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
WR Garrett Wilson
Wed 12:32 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.3 —
DT Harrison Phillips
Wed 5:20 PM		 Active → Questionable+0.1 —
LB Trevin Wallace
Wed 8:43 PM		 Questionable → Out+0.1 —

Out long-term, already in the line: T'Vondre Sweat (DL · IR · since Week 8), David Onyemata (DL · IR · since Week 3).

Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.

Every Book · Jets side

BookSpreadPriceMoneylineDecimalWin % (no-vig)TotalAs of
Consensus+8 −110+3504.50 21.3%51Wed 10:26 PM
Kalshi+8 —+4135.13 19.5%50.5Wed 10:26 PM
DraftKings+8.5 −112+3404.40 21.8%50.5Wed 10:26 PM
FanDuel+7.5 −105+3604.60 20.9%50.5Wed 10:26 PM
BetMGM+8 −110+3504.50 21.4%51Wed 10:26 PM
Caesars+7.5 −105+3304.30 22.4%51Wed 10:26 PM
Fanatics+8 −110+3404.40 21.7%51Wed 10:26 PM
BetRivers+8 −110+3504.50 21.3%51Wed 10:26 PM
BetOnline+9 −125+3544.54 21.2%51Wed 10:26 PM
Bovada+8 −110+3304.30 22.3%51Wed 10:26 PM
LowVig+7.5 +104+3544.54 21.2%51Wed 10:26 PM
MyBookie+8 −110+3364.36 21.9%51Wed 10:26 PM
BetUS+9 −125+3604.60 21.0%51Wed 10:26 PM

Best for BUF: FanDuel −7.5 (−115)Best for NYJ: DraftKings +8.5 (−112)

Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Bills side is the mirror image.