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The Sharp Edition

The news that moves games, and whether the market has priced it in
Thursday, October 1, 2026 Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · QB

Baker Mayfield

Valued at 5.4 points a game over Jalon Daniels (current-form EPA vs backup). Played 0 of 0 games he was listed for.

The File

NewsGameChangeWorthLine then → close/nowPriced in?PlayedSource
Mon Sep 28, 1:03 PM W4 vs GB Questionable → Out+2.9 +3.5 → +3.5 Not priced in — ESPN
Sun Sep 27, 7:27 PM W4 vs GB Active → Questionable+1.7 −2.5 → +3.5 Moved past our number — ESPN

Statuses as reported by the team and ESPN. Lines are the team's consensus spread before the news and at kickoff (or now, for games not yet played).