Week 4 · Sunday, October 4, 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Bills −5.5 at our first look, −7 now. 12 injury reports on file.
Line Movement
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | −5.5 | |
| NE G Roten to injured reserve | Sun Sep 27, 5:53 PM ET | -1.5 |
| BUF QB Allen questionable | Mon Sep 28, 2:55 PM ET | +0.5 |
| NE LB Elliss questionable | Thu Oct 1, 2:44 PM ET | -0.5 |
| Line now | −7 |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 69.2% (−225) | |
| NE G Roten to injured reserve | Sun Sep 27, 5:53 PM ET | 75.3% (−305) |
| BUF QB Allen questionable | Mon Sep 28, 2:55 PM ET | 73.7% (−280) |
| NE LB Elliss questionable | Thu Oct 1, 2:44 PM ET | 75.3% (−305) |
| Less than the spread implies | 73.4% (−276) | |
| Line now | 73.4% (−276) |
48.5 no movement since tracking began Mon 11:10 PM ET.
Notes
Maye says shoulder is no issue ahead of Buffalo trip
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye said his right shoulder is not limiting his throwing and blamed his slow start on decision-making. That points to him starting at Buffalo without physical restrictions. ESPN
NE since this note: +7 → +7 (no move)
Patriots lose guard Van Roten to injured reserve
New England placed guard Greg Van Roten on injured reserve Tuesday with a thigh injury, sidelining him for at least several weeks. That further thins the offensive line protecting Drake Maye ahead of the trip to Buffalo. ESPN
NE since this note: +6.5 → +7 (+0.5)
Wind in the Forecast for Patriots at Bills
The forecast for kickoff at Highmark Stadium calls for wind 12 mph, gusting 16. Forecasts change; this note updates as the game gets closer.
Bills play down Allen knee hit ahead of Patriots visit
Josh Allen took a knee hit late in Buffalo's win over the Chargers and is listed questionable. Coach Joe Brady said the team will monitor him over the next few days but expressed no concern, suggesting Allen is on track to start against New England. ESPN player news
BUF since this note: −6.5 → −7 (−0.5)
Injury Report
New England Patriots
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE Christian Barmore Sun 2:01 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.4 | — |
| G Greg Van Roten Sun 2:22 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | — |
| S Craig Woodson Tue 1:06 PM |
Out → Questionable | −0.2 | — |
| LB Dre'Mont Jones Tue 1:06 PM |
Out → Questionable | −0.2 | — |
| G Greg Van Roten Tue 4:29 PM |
Questionable → IR | +0.1 | — |
| RT Morgan Moses Wed 5:33 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.2 | — |
| CB Christian Gonzalez Wed 5:33 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.6 | — |
| LB Christian Elliss Wed 5:33 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | — |
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Josh Allen Mon 5:28 PM |
Active → Questionable | +2.5 | — |
| EDGE T.J. Sanders Tue 12:46 PM |
Out → Doubtful | −0.0 | — |
| DT Deone Walker Wed 5:33 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | — |
| WR DJ Moore Wed 5:33 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.2 | — |
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Bills side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | −7 | −105 | −325 | 1.31 | 73.4% | 48.5 | Thu 4:17 PM |
| Kalshi | −7 | — | −277 | 1.36 | 73.5% | 48.5 | Thu 4:17 PM |
| DraftKings | −7 | −105 | −298 | 1.34 | 71.8% | 48.5 | Thu 4:17 PM |
| FanDuel | −6.5 | −122 | −340 | 1.29 | 74.3% | 48.5 | Thu 4:17 PM |
| BetMGM | −6.5 | −115 | −325 | 1.31 | 73.9% | 48.5 | Thu 4:17 PM |
| Caesars | −7 | −105 | −325 | 1.31 | 73.4% | 48.5 | Thu 4:17 PM |
| Fanatics | −7 | −105 | −320 | 1.31 | 72.7% | 48.5 | Thu 4:17 PM |
| BetRivers | −6.5 | −117 | −315 | 1.32 | 72.7% | 48 | Thu 4:17 PM |
| BetOnline | −7 | −105 | −325 | 1.31 | 73.5% | 49 | Thu 4:17 PM |
| Bovada | −7 | −105 | −310 | 1.32 | 72.9% | 48.5 | Thu 4:17 PM |
| LowVig | −7 | +101 | −325 | 1.31 | 73.5% | 49 | Thu 4:17 PM |
| MyBookie | −7 | −105 | −319 | 1.31 | 72.5% | 48.5 | Thu 4:17 PM |
| BetUS | −7 | +100 | −325 | 1.31 | 73.6% | 49 | Thu 4:17 PM |
Best for NE: DraftKings +7 (−115)Best for BUF: BetMGM −6.5 (−115)
Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Patriots side is the mirror image.