Week 7 · Thursday, October 22, 8:15 PM ET · Final NE 24, CHI 30
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Bears −2 at our first look, −3 at kickoff. 23 injury reports on file. Team pages: Patriots · Bears
Conditions · Soldier Field: Forecast 57°F, wind 7 mph, 0% chance of rain. At kickoff: 55°F, wind 2 mph, dry.
The read at kickoff
News: Patriots −0.4 · Bears +0.4 → favors the Bears by 0.8. Market: moved 1 toward the Bears. Priced in
Landed: Patriots 24, Bears 30. The Bears covered the closing line (Bears −3). The move toward the Bears was right. 54 points, over the closing total of 50.5.
New England Patriots −0.4
| WR Romeo Doubs Active → IR |
IR | −0.4 |
| G Alijah Vera-Tucker Active → Doubtful → Out → IR · 2 OL starters out |
IR | −0.3 |
| LB Christian Elliss Questionable → Cleared |
Active | +0.1 |
| S Craig Woodson Questionable → Cleared |
Active | +0.1 |
| RT Morgan Moses Questionable → Cleared |
Active | +0.1 |
Chicago Bears +0.4
| CB Tyrique Stevenson Out → Returning → Questionable → Cleared |
Active | +0.4 |
Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. A questionable starter counts at his chance of sitting (shown beside him with his full value if he's ruled out). After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.
Line Movement
Final: NE 24, CHI 30. Bears beat the closing number by 3.
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | −2 | |
| CHI G Jackson questionable | Sun Oct 18, 11:04 AM ET | +0.5 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 18, 7:20 PM ET | -1.5 |
| Closing line | −3 |
Final: NE 24, CHI 30. Bears won at a 58% closing chance to win.
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 54.5% (−120) | |
| CHI G Jackson questionable | Sun Oct 18, 11:04 AM ET | 53.5% (−115) |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 18, 7:20 PM ET | 57.3% (−134) |
| Price-only move | 58.4% (−140) | |
| Closing line | 58.4% (−140) |
Final: NE 24, CHI 30. 54 points, over the closing total of 50.5.
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 48.5 | |
| Market move, no reported news | Tue Oct 13, 6:09 PM ET | +1.5 |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Oct 18, 8:11 PM ET | +0.5 |
| Closing line | 50.5 |
Notes
Bears Beat Patriots 30–24
Final: New England Patriots 24, Chicago Bears 30. The closing line was Bears −3; Chicago covered by 3. The 54 combined points went over the closing total of 50.5.
CHI since this note: −3 → −3 (no move) at kickoff
Illness puts Patriots corner Gonzalez in doubt at Chicago
New England listed cornerback Christian Gonzalez as questionable for Thursday night's game in Chicago because of an illness. Losing their top cover man would weaken the Patriots secondary against the Bears passing game. ProFootballTalk
NE since this note: +3 → +3 (no move) at kickoff
Bears call up Johnson, Scott for Thursday night
Chicago elevated linebacker Buddy Johnson and running back Zavier Scott from the practice squad for the game against New England. Scott adds backfield depth with Kyle Monangai out. Chicago Bears (team site)
CHI since this note: −3 → −3 (no move) at kickoff
Bears lose Monangai for Thursday; Jackson cleared to play
Chicago ruled out running back Kyle Monangai for the Thursday night game against New England. Guard Jonah Jackson, previously limited in practice, is expected to play, keeping the offensive line intact. ProFootballTalk
CHI since this note: −3 → −3 (no move) at kickoff
Patriots rule out Davis, Vera-Tucker, Brown for Thursday at Chicago
New England will be without cornerback Carlton Davis and offensive linemen Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown against the Bears, part of five players ruled out. The absences thin both the secondary and the interior offensive line for a short-week road game. ProFootballTalk
NE since this note: +3 → +3 (no move) at kickoff
Patriots CB Carlton Davis back to limited work Tuesday
Carlton Davis returned to practice on a limited basis Tuesday, a step up from his previous status. His progress points toward possible availability for New England's short-week trip to Chicago. ProFootballTalk
NE since this note: +3 → +3 (no move) at kickoff
Moses, Brown listed limited on Patriots' estimated injury report
New England did not hold a practice Monday but issued an estimated injury report ahead of Thursday night's game at Chicago. Starting tackle Morgan Moses and receiver A.J. Brown were both listed as limited, putting their full availability in question. ProFootballTalk
NE since this note: +3 → +3 (no move) at kickoff
Williams clears injury report ahead of Bears-Patriots
Caleb Williams is no longer listed on Chicago's injury report. The quarterback is set to start against New England. ProFootballTalk
CHI since this note: −3 → −3 (no move) at kickoff
Patriots put Doubs on IR, promote Davison
New England placed receiver Romeo Doubs on injured reserve, sidelining him for at least the next several games including the trip to Chicago. The team promoted defensive back Elliott Davison from the practice squad and made additional practice squad moves. New England Patriots (team site)
NE since this note: +3 → +3 (no move) at kickoff
Line moves 1 toward the Bears after last week's results
The consensus spread on Patriots at Bears has moved from −2 to −3 (home side). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
CHI since this note: −2.5 → −3 (−0.5) at kickoff
Line moves 1.5 on the news: Doubs injured after long touchdown grab against Jets
The consensus spread on Patriots at Bears has moved from −1.5 to −3 (home side). The move followed the report (possibly related): Doubs injured after long touchdown grab against Jets.
CHI since this note: −2 → −3 (−1.0) at kickoff
Line moves 1.5 toward the Bears ahead of the news (possibly related)
The consensus spread on Patriots at Bears has moved from −1.5 to −3 (home side), with 5 of 5 books moving the same way (a broad, fast move). The market started moving 1h 15m before the report (possibly related): Doubs injured after long touchdown grab against Jets.
CHI since this note: −2 → −3 (−1.0) at kickoff
Injury Report
New England Patriots
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR Romeo Doubs Mon 4:26 PM |
Active → IR | +0.4 | No |
| CB Carlton Davis III Tue 12:25 PM |
Out → Questionable | −0.4 | No |
| G Ben Brown Tue 2:28 PM |
Active → Doubtful | +0.0 | No |
| G Alijah Vera-Tucker Tue 2:28 PM |
Active → Doubtful | +0.2 | No |
| G Ben Brown Wed 2:41 PM |
Doubtful → Out | +0.0 | No |
| CB Carlton Davis III Wed 2:41 PM |
Questionable → Out | +0.4 | No |
| G Alijah Vera-Tucker Wed 2:41 PM |
Doubtful → Out | +0.0 | No |
| WR A.J. Brown Wed 3:42 PM |
Questionable → Cleared | −0.0 | Yes |
| S Kevin Byard Wed 3:42 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.2 | Yes |
| G Alijah Vera-Tucker Thu 4:06 PM |
Out → IR | 0.0 | No |
| CB Christian Gonzalez Thu 6:25 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.3 | Yes |
| LB Christian Elliss Thu 6:52 PM |
Questionable → Cleared | −0.1 | Yes |
| S Kevin Byard Thu 6:52 PM |
Questionable → Cleared | −0.2 | Yes |
| S Craig Woodson Thu 6:57 PM |
Questionable → Cleared | −0.1 | Yes |
| RT Morgan Moses Thu 7:03 PM |
Questionable → Cleared | −0.1 | Yes |
Chicago Bears
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| G Jonah Jackson Sun 3:30 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | Yes |
| CB Tyrique Stevenson Mon 8:51 PM |
Out → Returning | −0.4 | Yes |
| LB T.J. Edwards Tue 12:25 PM |
Out → Questionable | −0.2 | No |
| CB Tyrique Stevenson Wed 3:22 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.1 | Yes |
| LB T.J. Edwards Wed 3:22 PM |
Questionable → Doubtful | +0.2 | No |
| G Jonah Jackson Wed 10:08 PM |
Questionable → Cleared | −0.1 | Yes |
| LB T.J. Edwards Thu 6:52 PM |
Doubtful → Out | +0.0 | No |
| CB Tyrique Stevenson Thu 7:08 PM |
Questionable → Cleared | −0.1 | Yes |
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Bears side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | −3 | −105 | −155 | 1.65 | 58.4% | 50.5 | Thu 8:12 PM |
| Kalshi | −3 | — | −147 | 1.68 | 59.5% | 50.5 | Thu 7:52 PM |
| DraftKings | −3 | −108 | −148 | 1.68 | 57.2% | 51.5 | Thu 8:12 PM |
| FanDuel | −3 | −105 | −158 | 1.63 | 58.9% | 50.5 | Thu 8:12 PM |
| BetMGM | −3 | +100 | −155 | 1.65 | 58.3% | 51 | Thu 8:12 PM |
| Caesars | −3 | −107 | −157 | 1.64 | 58.6% | 51 | Thu 8:12 PM |
| Fanatics | −3 | −105 | −155 | 1.65 | 58.3% | 50.5 | Thu 8:12 PM |
| BetRivers | −3 | −106 | −152 | 1.66 | 57.4% | 50.5 | Thu 8:12 PM |
| BetOnline | −3 | −105 | −150 | 1.67 | 58.0% | 50.5 | Thu 8:12 PM |
| Bovada | −3 | −105 | −160 | 1.62 | 59.1% | 51 | Thu 8:12 PM |
| LowVig | −3 | +102 | −150 | 1.67 | 58.0% | 50.5 | Thu 8:12 PM |
| MyBookie | −3 | −105 | −155 | 1.65 | 58.5% | 51 | Thu 8:12 PM |
| BetUS | −3 | −105 | −155 | 1.65 | 58.7% | 51 | Thu 8:12 PM |
Best for NE: BetMGM +3 (−110)Best for CHI: BetMGM −3 (+100)
Closing prices: the last quote before kickoff. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Patriots side is the mirror image.