Week 10 · Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Colts −2 at our first look, −3.5 now. 11 injury reports on file. Team pages: Dolphins · Colts
The read so far
News: Dolphins −4.1 · Colts −0.0 → favors the Colts by 4.1. Market: moved 1.5 toward the Colts. Partly priced in
Miami Dolphins −4.1
| QB Malik Willis Active → Questionable → IR |
IR | −3.6 |
| DT Zach Sieler Questionable → Out → IR |
IR | −0.4 |
| C Aaron Brewer Active → Questionable · 0.5 if out, sits 36% of the time |
Questionable | −0.2 |
Indianapolis Colts −0.0
| RT Jalen Travis Questionable → Doubtful |
Doubtful | −0.1 |
| LB Akeem Davis-Gaither Out → Questionable · 0.1 if out, sits 36% of the time |
Questionable | +0.1 |
Each player counted once: his whole week, first status to last, in points from his team's side (−0.9 costs his team 0.9). A unit missing two or three starters counts extra. A questionable starter counts at his chance of sitting (shown beside him with his full value if he's ruled out). After the inactive list, a questionable starter who isn't on it is playing.
Line Movement
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | −2 | |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Nov 8, 8:46 PM ET | -0.5 |
| MIA QB Willis to injured reserve | Tue Nov 10, 4:15 PM ET | -1 |
| Line now | −3.5 |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 55.5% (−125) | |
| Reaction to last week's game | Sun Nov 8, 8:46 PM ET | 56.8% (−131) |
| MIA QB Willis to injured reserve | Tue Nov 10, 4:15 PM ET | 63.3% (−172) |
| Price-only move | 64.5% (−182) | |
| Line now | 64.5% (−182) |
Data
| Cause | When | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Opening line | 33.5 | |
| Reaction to last week's game | Mon Nov 9, 12:56 AM ET | +7 |
| MIA QB Willis to injured reserve | Tue Nov 10, 4:15 PM ET | -2.5 |
| Line now | 38 |
Notes
Colts get pass rusher Arden Key back at practice
Arden Key, sidelined since October with a hamstring injury that landed him on injured reserve, has resumed practicing with Indianapolis. His return would add depth to the Colts' pass rush against Miami. Indianapolis Colts (team site)
IND since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move)
Dolphins expect Willis back this season, but no timetable set
Miami's coaching staff said there is no set return date for quarterback Malik Willis and his abdomen injury, though he is expected to play again this season. He remains unavailable in the near term, leaving the quarterback room thin at Indianapolis. ESPN player news
MIA since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move)
Dolphins add defensive lineman Cooper Jr. from Panthers practice squad
Miami signed defensive lineman Keith Cooper Jr. to its active roster off Carolina's practice squad. He adds depth to the Dolphins' defensive front ahead of the trip to Indianapolis. Miami Dolphins (team site)
MIA since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move)
Dolphins put QB Malik Willis on injured reserve
Miami moved quarterback Malik Willis to injured reserve Tuesday with a core injury. He will miss at least the next several games, thinning the Dolphins' quarterback depth at Indianapolis. ESPN player news
MIA since this note: +3.5 → +3.5 (no move)
Line moves 1 on the news: Malik Willis (QB) Questionable to IR
The consensus spread on Dolphins at Colts has moved from −2.5 to −3.5 (home side). The move followed the report: Malik Willis (QB) Questionable to IR.
IND since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move)
Total drops 2 for Dolphins at Colts
The consensus total on Dolphins at Colts has moved from 40 to 38. The move followed the report: Malik Willis (QB) Questionable to IR.
IND since this note: −3.5 → −3.5 (no move)
Total drops 2.5 for Dolphins at Colts ahead of the news
The consensus total on Dolphins at Colts has moved from 40.5 to 38. The market started moving 0h 27m before the report: Malik Willis (QB) Questionable to IR.
IND since this note: −2.5 → −3.5 (−1.0)
Total drops 3 for Dolphins at Colts ahead of the news
The consensus total on Dolphins at Colts has moved from 41 to 38. The market started moving 2h 04m before the report: Justin Walley (NB) Out to Questionable.
IND since this note: −2.5 → −3.5 (−1.0)
Total drops 2.5 for Dolphins at Colts ahead of the news
The consensus total on Dolphins at Colts has moved from 40.5 to 38. The market started moving 3h 37m before the report: Justin Walley (NB) Out to Questionable.
IND since this note: −2.5 → −3.5 (−1.0)
Line moves 1.5 toward the Colts ahead of the news
The consensus spread on Dolphins at Colts has moved from −2 to −3.5 (home side). The market started moving 10h 40m before the report: Zach Sieler (DT) Questionable to Out.
IND since this note: −2.5 → −3.5 (−1.0)
Total drops 1.5 for Dolphins at Colts after last week's results
The consensus total on Dolphins at Colts has moved from 42 to 40.5. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
IND since this note: −2.5 → −3.5 (−1.0)
Total drops 2 for Dolphins at Colts after last week's results
The consensus total on Dolphins at Colts has moved from 42.5 to 40.5. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
IND since this note: −2.5 → −3.5 (−1.0)
Total drops 2.5 for Dolphins at Colts ahead of the news
The consensus total on Dolphins at Colts has moved from 43 to 40.5. The market started moving 11h 43m before the report: Malik Willis (QB) Active to Questionable.
IND since this note: −2.5 → −3.5 (−1.0)
Line moves 1 toward the Colts after last week's results
The consensus spread on Dolphins at Colts has moved from −1.5 to −2.5 (home side). The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
IND since this note: −2 → −3.5 (−1.5)
Total drops 3 for Dolphins at Colts after last week's results
The consensus total on Dolphins at Colts has moved from 43.5 to 40.5. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
IND since this note: −1.5 → −3.5 (−2.0)
Total drops 3 for Dolphins at Colts after last week's results
The consensus total on Dolphins at Colts has moved from 43.5 to 40.5. The move began within hours of the teams' last games: the market re-rating them on what it just saw, not a news story.
IND since this note: −2.5 → −3.5 (−1.0)
Injury Report
Miami Dolphins
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Malik Willis Mon 8:29 AM |
Active → Questionable | +1.3 | — |
| DT Zach Sieler Tue 11:26 AM |
Questionable → Out | +0.4 | — |
| QB Malik Willis Tue 4:11 PM |
Questionable → IR | +2.3 | — |
| DT Zach Sieler Tue 4:31 PM |
Out → IR | 0.0 | — |
| C Aaron Brewer Wed 4:59 PM |
Active → Questionable | +0.2 | — |
Out long-term, already in the line: De'Von Achane (RB · IR · since Week 4).
Indianapolis Colts
| Player | Change | Worth | Played |
|---|---|---|---|
| RT Jalen Travis Mon 8:51 PM |
Questionable → Doubtful | +0.1 | — |
| NB Justin Walley Tue 11:05 AM |
Out → Questionable | −0.3 | — |
| LB Akeem Davis-Gaither Tue 11:05 AM |
Out → Questionable | −0.1 | — |
| S A.J. Haulcy Tue 11:05 AM |
Out → Questionable | −0.2 | — |
| NB Justin Walley Wed 6:41 PM |
Questionable → Out | +0.3 | — |
| S A.J. Haulcy Wed 8:23 PM |
Questionable → Out | +0.2 | — |
Out long-term, already in the line: Alec Pierce (WR · IR · since Week 3), Arden Key (DL · IR · since Week 5).
Worth = points against the team from that change in his chance of playing, on our valuation of him over his backup.
Every Book · Colts side
| Book | Spread | Price | Moneyline | Decimal | Win % (no-vig) | Total | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | −3.5 | −110 | −205 | 1.49 | 64.5% | 38 | Wed 10:26 PM |
| Kalshi | −4 | — | −190 | 1.53 | 65.5% | 38 | Wed 10:26 PM |
| DraftKings | −3.5 | −118 | −205 | 1.49 | 64.5% | 38.5 | Wed 10:26 PM |
| FanDuel | −3.5 | −115 | −215 | 1.47 | 65.6% | 37.5 | Wed 10:26 PM |
| BetMGM | −4 | −108 | −210 | 1.48 | 64.7% | 38 | Wed 10:26 PM |
| Caesars | −3.5 | −112 | −205 | 1.49 | 64.4% | 38.5 | Wed 10:26 PM |
| Fanatics | −4 | −110 | −205 | 1.49 | 64.5% | 38 | Wed 10:26 PM |
| BetRivers | −3.5 | −115 | −205 | 1.49 | 63.9% | 38.5 | Wed 10:26 PM |
| BetOnline | −3.5 | −112 | −195 | 1.51 | 64.1% | 38 | Wed 10:26 PM |
| Bovada | −4 | −110 | −200 | 1.50 | 64.3% | 38 | Wed 10:26 PM |
| LowVig | −3.5 | −107 | −195 | 1.51 | 64.1% | 38 | Wed 10:26 PM |
| MyBookie | −4 | −110 | −212 | 1.47 | 64.7% | 38 | Wed 10:26 PM |
| BetUS | −3.5 | −110 | −205 | 1.49 | 64.9% | 38 | Wed 10:26 PM |
Best for MIA: BetMGM +4 (−110)Best for IND: Caesars −3.5 (−112)
Latest quotes. Kalshi's percentage is its contract price; its odds are that price with no margin. The Dolphins side is the mirror image.